The 20th Century is Really Over

Jan Carnogursky
Former Deputy Prime Minister of Czechoslovakia and former Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic

Bratislava Law School
Bratislava, Slovakia                            

The Cold War dominated the latter half of the 20th century in Europe. It was over more quickly than anybody could anticipate. Two decades have passed since the end of the Cold War, to use the original meaning of that term. In Russia, in particular, there have been voices asking whether the Cold War is really over and simultaneously calling for the creation of a new security architecture in Europe. There has been no answer for the time being from the West – no affirmative answer, in any case. NATO continues to play the role of key guarantor of security in the West.

The European Union already includes 27 countries, and other countries continue to want to join. The EU has successfully integrated new members into its organization, particularly in the economic sphere. There is no common foreign policy or security strategy yet. And even though a common foreign and security policy will probably emerge soon, there is a large gap between the declaration and the actual implementation. It may be inferred that the questions and answers about the new security architecture in Europe will depend on the analysis of its past structure. It can be confidently stated that such analysis will include the assertion that in the past, the military powers in Europe were Britain, France, Germany and Russia. Of these, only Russia remains a military power, and the U.S. has assumed the role of the Western military powers.

The second clear assertion is the existence of good relations between Russia and Prussia/Germany before the start of the 20th century. Another obvious statement is that when Russia and the Western European countries signed peace treaties, such treaties were reliable and long-lasting. Examples of this are the Congress of Vienna in 1815 and the Helsinki Accords in 1975. A new paradigm for European security came into being at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century with the escalation of conflicts between Russia and Germany. Added to this were other European contradictions that finally resulted in World War I and then World War II. The cold war that ensued ended 20 years ago.
   
Russia came out of the Cold War weakened, while its size was reduced to approximately that of the empire of Peter the Great. Germany was no longer a military power, and the UK and France also lost this role in actual fact. The U.S. emerged as the apparent victor of the Cold War, and it basked in the light of that victory for 20 years. Nevertheless, the Americans have been unable to achieve victory in Afghanistan or an overwhelming victory in Iraq, where the Iraqis are forcing them out of their country. The U.S. was also forced to abandon the plans of the previous administration to grant Georgia and Ukraine NATO membership. And the latest decision is to abandon plans to build a missile defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic and to change the configuration of the missile defence shield of the U.S.
   
A financial crisis started in the U.S., and it is unclear when it will be over. The U.S. is already no longer in the condition to increase its might in the world. Russia is only capable of doing so close to its own borders. A new architecture for European security after the end of the Cold War is taking shape. This is already happening. It will subsequently be a matter of confirming the figuration of this architecture and, possibly, signing a formal document. Whether or not an international agreement on European security (that would replace the Helsinki Accords) is signed is less important. What is important is that the major European states, primarily the continental ones, consistently come together. This is also already happening. Russia views Germany as its strategic partner in the EU, and Germany is not resistant to characterizing the relationship this way. Russia’s relations with France, Italy and Spain are also good or improved, depending on the nature of the governments in Paris, Rome and Madrid. The UK is vacillating between Europe and the U.S., and its influence on the continent is waning. Some Baltic and Central European countries may delay the development of a new security paradigm, if only for a few months. NATO still has to prove its future relevance on the battlefields of Afghanistan. Regardless of how the war in Afghanistan ends, NATO will not be able to retain any position in the realm of European security other than one that the deciding European governments will want.    
  
Consequently, a new factor has become important in Europe. This is the European Union’s “soft power”. The EU is attractive for eastern European countries for its intelligent structure, and because it strengthens good neighbourly relations between its members. Brussels issues a great many internal directives and mandates that become the butt of jokes. Nevertheless, these regulations have provided the opportunity to erase the internal borders within the EU, gradually allowing the introduction of a single currency and increasing freedom and security for EU citizens. Countries bordering the EU are interested in EU membership. The attractiveness of the EU has given rise to so-called “colour revolutions” in the republics on the post-Soviet space. Those politicians who at least promise to bring their countries closer to the EU can count on citizens’ support. The EU has to digest its last great expansion of 2004, so acceptance of any new members cannot be expected for a long time. But the EU can offer various benefits of associate membership, and it remains attractive. This is a challenge for Russia that must be answered, and no examples from the past will help. The EU’s challenge is a peaceful challenge, and Moscow’s answer must also be peaceful.
 
 “Soft power” is currently the new element in the structure of European security. This is great progress compared with the well-armed European armies that stood against one another in the past. The 20th Century in Europe is really over, and a new European security architecture is being born.