Rethinking the Resetting

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have declared that the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is ready and is expected to be signed in the near future.

By FENG Shaolei (SAIAS, ECNU), Director, Centre for Russian Studies, East China Normal University; Member of the Sino-Russian Committee of Friendship

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have declared that the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is ready and is expected to be signed in the near future. In recent years, U.S.-Russian relations have progressed from the strategic arms talks to the present cooperation on new strategic arms limitation agreements. It should be said it is worth welcoming an international treaty on preventing weapons proliferation because this agreement not only improves the relations and the political climate between these two countries but also shows that it is possible to counter threats in a world where traditional weapons proliferation still exist.

It is possible for the U.S. and Russia to conclude a new START treaty because both sides need it. For the U.S., such a diplomatic push is crucial to show that President Barrack Obama is committed to changing the unilateral diplomatic doctrine and the adverse effects of neo-conservative policy in order to obtain clear political benefits before the mid-term elections.

For Russia, which sees the U.S as an opponent and pursues the goal of achieving an equal status with Western countries, it is a major achievement to sign a new START treaty. In the face of the financial crisis, it is especially important for Russia to get rid of the burden of the arms race and enact a strategy for its economic development.

What needs to be considered is to what extent the new agreement between the U.S. and Russia shows an improvement in relations between these two great powers? More importantly, we need to look at ways to improve the difficult situation between the former Soviet Union and neighboring countries. So far, there is no clear sign that relations between Russia and the obviously Western-backed Georgia have improved. Meanwhile, it is still unclear whether American strategy of deploying ABM systems in Central and Eastern Europe is "delayed" or "withdrawn." The same can be said about the position on Iran, which the U.S. and Russia used to share. Actually, both of these issues are crucial for bilateral relations and cause great concern in the international community.

Compared with the actual gaps between policy levels, I think there may be some cognitive gaps which affect the U.S.-Russian relations at a deeper level.

First of all, the two countries have different perception of their bilateral relations. Lavrov summed up Russia’s foreign policies several days ago, repeatedly stressing its clear-cut position on "equal" contacts. However, are the Americans, who still see themselves as winners in the Cold War (perhaps with the exception of President Obama), willing to build truly equal relations with their Russian friends?

Secondly, there is a new awareness of international security in Eurasia. As Lavrov said, “earlier plans were based on the presumption that a missile threat was imminent,” but the Russian side thinks this needs to be re-evaluated.

More importantly, to what degree can the Obama administration change the negative attitude towards Russia which became prominent during George W. Bush’s presidency? Russia is still in the process of social and institutional transition. This is also a difficult problem to resolve in a short time.

I do not believe it is impossible to successfully develop the relations between major powers during a period of rapid change in the international system. Nevertheless, we are going to need a lot of patience to see an improvement in U.S.-Russian relations as long as the two countries maintain only limited economic and trade relations and as long as they lack mutual respect for their core strategic interests.

In any case, the improvement in U.S.-Russian relations is a major event in the current changing international system. It will provide a reference for redefining relations among various countries, particularly for the countries that are currently involved in earlier stages of peace negotiations.