New tension, new troubles

President Obama is understandably more interested in securing Russian cooperation on Iran and Afghanistan than the US missile defence shield. From Washington’s point of view, it is not Medvedev and Putin that pose a threat to the West, but rather Islamic theocratic regimes and terrorism.

By Leszek Miller, leader of the Democratic left Alliance, former Prime Minister of Poland

President Obama is understandably more interested in securing Russian cooperation on Iran and Afghanistan than the US missile defence shield. From Washington’s point of view, it is not Medvedev and Putin that pose a threat to the West, but rather Islamic theocratic regimes and terrorism. Washington puts little stock in concerns of some political elites in eastern Europe to the contrary.  Some time ago Moscow declared that it would help America and NATO transport military personnel and equipment to Afghanistan. Things will not be so easy with Iran, but Medvedev would rather have good relations with the United Stated than all the troubles caused by Teheran’s nuclear aspirations.

It appears that the United States will continue to pursue its missile defence project, only now it will do so in collaboration with Russia. This was pointed out by Prof. Zbigniew Brzezinski, who says that while missile defence is a matter of primary importance for Poland, it is not a top priority for the US. Brzezinski says that a shift in priorities is possible, “but in a different system that will include an agreement with Russia, which will change the shape of the whole solution” The Polish-born American political scientist cuts to the heart of the matter. Warsaw wanted the missile shield so that it can say to Moscow: “We are independent of you and we will only accept an equal partnership, because we are protected by the US military umbrella. We have privileged relations with Washington and want to be recognized as an authority in this region of Europe.”

The Polish government did not allow for the possibility that the missile shield was a virtual project from the start, designed to force Russia to cooperate by more sophisticated means than brandishing the nuclear club, as President Kennedy did during the Cuban Missile Crisis. This claim is supported by the fact that the system was to be deployed in Poland and the Czech Republic, two countries close to Russia that are governed by extremely Russophobic elites. There were other possible locations for the system, including Turkey and the UK. The idea of US missiles in eastern Europe caused the Kremlin discomfort for two reasons. First there was the perceived threat from “Polish missiles” and the impact of that situation on Russia’s internal politics. Second, by accepting the project, Moscow would undermine its existing superpower policy.

America’s new proposal to deploy the missile system in Romania and Bulgaria is intended to keep pressure on the Kremlin. However, Russia’s response is clearly stronger this time. In a new defence doctrine signed by Medvedev, the president identifies Russia’s main threats as the continued expansion of NATO and the development of missile defence systems that would allegedly “upset the balance of forces” between the global superpowers. Instead of this, Medvedev proposes a new collective security system stretching "from Vladivostok to Vancouver”. This new arrangement would put a stop to NATO’s expansion to former Soviet countries, the shift of Western forces towards the Russian border, and the installation of missile defence systems that could pose a threat to Moscow. The idea could gain traction with some NATO countries, such as Italy, Germany and Spain. However, Poland has just ratified the Polish-US Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which calls for Patriot air defence missile batteries to be installed in Poland. This runs counter to Medvedev’s plan.

New tension in US-Russian relations is not beneficial to Europe, especially Poland. In the Europe of the past - ravaged by wars, torn apart, facing economic and civilisation collapse - Poland’s geopolitical situation was a source of various disasters. Therefore it is in Poles’ best interest to build a continent that is unified, secure, and rooted in the principles democracy and solidarity.

This means building a Europe with Russia, not against it.