By Alexander RAHR, Director of the Russia/Eurasia Program, German Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin

Against the background of the Ukrainian Presidential elections and the election of Viktor Yanukovich the Centre Russia/Eurasia in collaboration with the Ukrainian foundation "United World" organized a conference on the topic "The New European Architecture. The Role of Ukraine" on the 9th of March 2010 in Berlin. Leading political representatives and experts from Ukraine and Germany discussed on three panels about new security challenges in fields like politics, economy and energy, about international terrorism and the role of civil society for Europe and the Ukraine. It became visible, that Ukraine under the new president will itself establish as a bridge between East and West and will contribute to improve the security of Europe. Associated with the new President is the hope, that Ukraine will resolve its domestic problems more consequent. 

In the first panel the conference participants discussed the future architecture of the European continent. Undoubtedly, Ukraine was characterized as a key factor in the overall European security and economic architecture. In the past two decades since the demise of the Soviet Union, Ukraine proved that it has become a real subject and not merely an object in global geopolitics. Ukraine, through its very existence, demonstrated that Europe consists of anything more than only the EU-NATO bloc on the one hand and the Russia bloc on the other hand. Ukrainian participants stated that the new President Viktor Yanukovich will strengthen the role of Ukraine inside Europe. He would change Ukraine`s image of a country which is torn apart in a conflict between Russia and the West. Yanukovich may try to make Ukraine a self-sufficient country between Russia and the West. Ukraine, in his mind, could become a bridge between EU/NATO and Russia/Eurasia.
 
Ukrainian politicians expect new investments into the local infrastructure ­ not only gas pipelines, but also roads, terminals, ports. They think that Yanukovich wants to keep Ukraine in a non-aligned status. In economic terms, he would adopt EU´s rules of the game but, at the same time, facilitate integrate Ukraine with its eastern markets, the Custom Union, the Single Economic Space and the Eurasian Economic Union (EvraSEC). Some observers think that he might be caught in contradictions: Ukraine can´t join any economic organization on the post-soviet space, because it has committed itself to membership in the WTO.
 
German participants said that Ukraine needed a fair assessment from the West. How really interested is the West in Ukraine? The West may be too much preoccupied with Afghanistan and the Greater Middle East in order to seriously devote itself to the creation of a strategic neighborhood policy with countries like Ukraine. Certain countries in the West may be unwilling to sacrifice their strategic economic relations with Russia for better ties to Ukraine. 
 
The conference also discussed the issue of "fighting terrorism". The debate showed that in the security dialogue with Ukraine the scope of themes had widened. Indeed, not the Russia missiles or U.S. missile defense threaten peace on the European continent. International terrorism has become by far the biggest common challenge facing NATO, EU and Ukraine in the 21st century.
 
Participants noted that Ukraine has not been targeted by Islamic terrorists and did not face strong separatism as Russia in the North Caucasus. Unlike countries of the old West, Ukraine is not regarded by Al-Qaida as an ally to the United States. Ukraine has sent some elite troops to support the U.S. to Iraq and Afghanistan, but that was more symbolic. Participants voiced the opinion that while Ukraine is not member of NATO and EU, geographically it is connected with the fate of entire Europe. Therefore it will approach the European security architecture in many ways: 
 
· Ukraine has lately become a dangerous route for illegal drug trafficking from Afghanistan to the West. 
· In case Iran gets the nuclear bomb or Pakistan falls into the hands of Islamists, U.S. Missile defense installations will very quickly appear on Ukrainian soil and make the country a front line against the new enemy in the Middle East.  
· In 2012 Ukraine, together with Poland, will host the European Soccer Championship. Such top sport events have often drawn attention from terrorist groups. The Munich Olympic Games 40 years ago should be for every organizer a reminder. During the World Soccer Tournament in Germany in 2006, we escaped a terrorist bombing of two trains only by chance.
 
If Ukraine wants to merge with the West, some observers stated, it should prepare for a show of full solidarity with the threat perceptions of the West. The Lisbon Treaty was just put into force and will result in the creation of stronger mechanisms inside the EU to conduct a Common Security and Defense Policy, including countering terrorism. Ukraine should make efforts to seek cooperation with the newly established bodies. Both sides should start with deepening ties between the national security bodies. It is in the interest of both sides to exchange data on suspects connected with Jihad. But growing corruption in Ukraine, but also in the EU, may threaten that data exchange. The example of Switzerland, where anonymous figures got hold of copies of banking details of thousands of foreign customers and sold that secret information to the German government was self-telling. Are terrorist data from state secret services also available on the black market?    
 
It is in the interest of the EU to cooperate with Ukraine on counter intelligence. In former years, trust was destroyed by Western suspicion about illegal arms sales to countries, which the U.S. titled rough states. We are not talking about Georgia, which had received tanks from Ukraine. Ukraine inherited numerous types of former Soviet weapons which it cannot use to modernize its own army. However, some of these military products might find interest on the vast arms markets.    

The conference came to the conclusion that European security was in large parts a matter of soft, not hard security. This is, for example, an issue where Russia has enormous problems to understand the EU. The military threats to Europe are not Russian or Chinese tanks and manpower, but asymmetric warfare operations, particularly terrorist attacks as we have witnessed on 9/11. In order to approach Europe, Ukraine´s new authorities would be well advised to develop a security doctrine based on real threat perceptions ­ themes which we are discussing at this panel today. Cyber terrorism is certainly a challenge for the future.   

If progress on both sides is made in the next months of Yanukovich´s presidency, this may result in the removal of many of today´s visa barriers. A visa free regime between the EU and Ukraine ­ but also between EU and Russia ­ is a realistic goal which the interested sides must achieve for the sake of their populations.  

Originally published on www.dgap.org