By Hüseyin Bağci, Professor of International Relations at Middle East Technical University, Ankara; TV and Radio Commentator in Turkey and а columnist for The New Anatolian, guest prof at Humboldt University in Berlin

The forthcoming visit of President Medvedev to Ankara is being expected with a great sense of anticipation and respect. There has never been a time in the past 150 years when the image of Russia was as positive in Turkey as it is now, as public surveys indicate. In the first years following the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Turkish-Russian relations, freed of ideological constraints, made a dramatic improvement. The 1990s were the “construction years,” not only because Turkish construction companies became actively involved in infrastructure projects in Russia, as well as in the new states in the Caucasus and Central Asia, but also in the fields of politics, culture, the economy and social programs.

Turkey expected Russia to become a “new emerging partner” in regional and global politics, and this process was accelerated by the elections in both countries. In 2000, when President Vladimir Putin was elected in Russia and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan came to power in Turkey with a parliamentary majority in 2002, both leaders set their policies in this respect. The often-cited chemistry between Putin and Erdogan was an important factor in the improved Turkish-Russian relations.

The visits of both leaders to each country contributed to economic and political progress.  Turkey is Russia’s fourth biggest foreign trade partner, and Russia has for several years been Turkey’s biggest economic partner.  On August 6, 2009, Prime Minister Putin and his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan signed 22 agreements. This was considered a very important visit because never before had agreements of this caliber and content been signed between the two countries. Now Russia and Turkey can freely address regional issues, as well as act on the global scene as emerging economic players.

There are high expectations for the visit of President Medvedev to Turkey because several new treaties are being prepared, as well as changes in the visa regime, which the Turkish prime minister announced during his recent visit to Moscow several months ago. This means that relations between Turkey and Russia will become more structured in the future. Last year the number of Russian tourists exceeded Germans for the first time. Russia remains Turkey’s biggest trade partner with a turnover of more than $130 billion, a record figure in the history of the two countries.

Social and scientific ties are also becoming stronger. The number of marriages between Turkish and Russian nationals is on the increase. There is active cooperation between universities and joint technological projects, as well as many other fields for close contacts. Russia is interested in building nuclear energy facilities in Turkey, as Prime Minister Putin stated recently.

Russia is the main gas provider to Turkey, and will remain so in the coming years. The South Stream and Blue Stream pipelines go through Turkey, and if the Nabucco project is also realized it will become a “pipeline country”. But Russia remains Turkey’s first choice for gas.
Last year Prime Minister Putin stated that Russia needed foreign workers to implement future projects. Turkey is extremely suitable for this role, not only because of its great experience with providing guest workers, but also because of the positive experience amassed in the past two decades, making Turkey a preferred country for Russia.

Despite optimistic forecasts, Turkey is not going to join the EU in the coming two decades; in fact, some pessimists believe that Turkey will never join the EU.  Turkey is paving the way to reaching terms similar to Norway’s with the EU, not being a member formally but having many privileges of the member countries.

Russia and Turkey are European states per se but not yet members of the EU. Turkey’s membership is ridden with problems; Russia’s is nearly impossible. But that does not stand in the way of good relations with the EU. However, Russia, the EU and Turkey are not the Bermuda triangle; instead they are a new Pyramid style institutional structure with all their interconnections. This keeps Europe alive and creates a new intellectual pool for the future.
We may ask ourselves, what is the history of Europe without Russian and Turkish history? Another equally important question is what is the future of Europe without Russian and Turkish economic, political and intellectual contribution?

Turkey and Russia are natural allies in this new global order. In particular, with their Islamic heritage and experience both countries are facing many common opportunities as well as challenges.
Turkish President Abdullah Gul is an experienced politician who is well aware of Russia’s importance for Turkey. The meeting between the two presidents will no doubt also cover the new situation in the region and the world. Both are modern politicians and are aware of the global and regional importance of their states and nations.

This visit of the Russian president is different from previous such visits. Then, as now, Russia was Turkey’s neighbor and enjoyed its great respect. The difference is that Russian and Turkish people discover each other more and more with every passing year. Russia’s perception of Turkey is changing and becoming more positive. 

President Medvedev’s message will probably concern the importance of dialogue with a new, more pragmatic and economically stronger Turkey. Turkish people have a saying: “Come for a visit so that we can talk more and our respect for each other can grow stronger.”  No doubt he will find a friendly and open heart in Ankara. The Russian president’s visit may also indicate a new spring in the relations between the two countries. Let there be hope and life, together.