According to Andreyev, Western sponsors or Russia are also unlikely to support the Islamic rebels (uprising leader Bakhtiyar Rakhimov said openly that the unrest was aimed at creating an Islamic state). The rebels could get assistance from international Islamic organizations, but it may not have enough forces for a nationwide revolution. The Islamic rebels will most probably resume terrorist attacks and try to lead public protests against the dramatic economic situation and repressive policies of the authorities.
This could eventually become Islam Karimov's worst nightmare - a civil war similar to the one that ruined Tajikistan, where the war was waged between religious clans under the banner of Islam, he said.
Seeing the effectiveness of using armed force to solve the problem, the current Uzbek regime will hardly launch broad political and economic reforms. Instead, it might use traditional methods, like bribing the regional clan elite, to strengthen the regime's foundation, Andreyev said.
Rumors are circulating in Tashkent that Islam Karimov is seriously ill. If this is true, the elite's power struggle will become acute. The most probable candidates for the presidency are head of the Security Service Rustam Inoyatov, Interior Minister Zakir Almatov and Presidential Adviser Ismail Dzhurabekov. None of them differ from Karimov politically, meaning his departure would not bring major political changes to the republic, Andreyev said.
On May 13, a jail and a number of government buildings were seized in Andizhan, Uzbekistan. Uzbek law enforcers conducted an operation, which resulted in the death of 170 people (official data). Journalists and human rights advocates said several hundred were killed.
Some 500 refugees are in Kyrgyzstan's west, mainly in the Jalal Abad region neighboring on Uzbekistan.
