Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to face another gas crisis early next year, similar to that of January 2009, a polish analyst said on Tuesday.
Russia's Gazprom briefly cut off supplies to Ukraine on January 1, 2009, amid a bitter gas pricing and debt dispute, suspending transits to the European Union seven days later in the absence of a new contract with the ex-Soviet neighbor. The move affected millions of European consumers.
The conflict was resolved on January 19, when Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Tymoshenko, agreed deals on deliveries to and gas transit through Ukraine for 2009.
Political forces in Ukraine, which transits around 80% of Russia's Europe-bound gas, are unlikely to take any drastic measures, due to fears they might influence the outcome of the January 17 presidential elections, said Ernest Wyciszkiewicz, the energy security program coordinator at the Polish Institute of International affairs.
"If no elections had been scheduled, a crisis could be possible, but now we should wait for January, a lot depends on the outcome of the elections," Wyciszkiewicz said.
He added that it was unclear whether Ukraine will be able pay for the Russian gas.
A total of 18 candidates have been registered to run in Ukrainian presidential elections. Polls point to Viktor Yanukovych, the president's opponent in the controversial 2004 race, as the leading contender, along with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, an ally-turned-rival of the incumbent president.
WARSAW, December 1 (RIA Novosti)
