ESTONIA
Commentators are skeptical about prospects for bilateral relations after Dmitry Medvedev's potential victory in the Russian presidential election.
"Medvedev as the Russian president is not the worst option... Judging by his international outlook, he is a lesser evil for us but... he will not necessarily treat Estonia any better." (Eesti Paevaleht, December 12)
"Medvedev's election as president opens up a window, through which the Kremlin may acquire new ideas and find an evolutionary way of getting out of the KGB grip. This is sooner better than worse, but so far this is no more than a possibility." (Eesti Paevaleht, December 15)
"Medvedev is unlikely to keep his presidential position for more than one term - maybe, he will leave it even earlier. After this, Putin will occupy the throne with an easy conscience for another eight years or even more... Medvedev with his assumed Western-oriented image will try to improve Russia's look in the eyes of Europe and the United States. But he won't have much room to maneuver and he is aware of that." (Parnu Postimees, December 13)
LATVIA
The Kremlin's political course has consolidated Russian society. Experts believe that this will strengthen Russia's international positions. "The elections have produced results, which are fantastic in the modern ‘democratic' world: United Russia... has received... the opportunity to pursue is political line single-handed, without making any concessions to anyone because this line suits the absolute majority of the Russian people... Europe with its permanent split, useless debates about every step, and five opinions on any issue, will have to face an absolutely monolith Russia next door." (Vesti-segodnya, December 14)
"In the eyes of some neighboring countries, Russia is becoming an ideological alternative to the European Union (EU) - it is offering a different approach to sovereignty, power and world arrangement." (Diena, December 14)
The media are ironic about the American Kremlinologists' forecast that the liberals will return to power in Russia after a period of economic recession and political chaos. "Failures of Russian liberals at home have affected their Western colleagues to the point of hallucinations a la Bregel or Bosch... It is very sad to realize that such ‘experts' are influencing Russia's image abroad and shape U.S. policy." (Biznes&Baltiya, December 14)
LITHUANIA
The media are extensively covering the Moscow-Warsaw agreement that lifts a ban on the export of Polish meat to Russia. This step should have a positive effect on the Lithuanian economy.
"Lithuanian producers and processors are hoping to heave a sigh of relief after the Poles resume meat exports to Russia because they were overloaded with the flow of excessive meat from this neighboring country. But the consumers will not be happy about higher meat prices." (Verslo zinios, December 14)
BELARUS
Some political scientists believe that the Kremlin's primary goal in Belarus is to completely reduce Alexander Lukashenko's influence on the political situation in Russia by economic means.
"As for the stabilization credit [$1.5 billion], it is worth studying attentively the terms on which it is granted... The memo says that it will be given in 2007 or 2008. But when exactly? Let's recall that Russia already promised this credit a year ago; half a year ago this promise was valid, and of course, by tradition Vladimir Putin keeps his promise... Russia has learned to talk with its problem brother. The main idea behind this ‘integration' gesture is to adequately handle the Belarusian issue and neutralize Lukashenko's brand in the Russian political market... The deal (if we interpret this as a deal) boils down to the following - silence in exchange for promises." (Nashe mneniye, December 17)
UKRAINE
Some publications are skeptical about attempts to portray Medvedev as liberal and dependent and believe that if he is elected president, Kiev will have to get ready for tough economic pressure.
"Medvedev was the ideological sponsor of the Yanukovich election campaign in 2004 and does not deserve the title of a liberal... He will not blackmail Kiev with the Black Sea Fleet but he will always carry Gazprom's powerful weapon in his hands." (Ukrainskaya Pravda, December 12)
"At one time, the Lenin entourage also considered Stalin an ideal puppet." (Obozrevatel, December 13)
MOLDOVA
Observers believe that Vladimir Voronin's future will depend upon his loyalty to Russia.
"Belarusian President Lukashenko is as vulnerable as any other Kremlin foe. Why should we cherish illusions that Voronin is not under threat? The latter may be blackmailed as much as the former... There is not much choice left... Either he dances to Moscow's tune or falls within the purview of the law that the State Duma recently approved, which allows Russian agents to punish the Kremlin's foreign foes by ‘specific means and methods.'" (Jurnal de Chisinau, December 18)
ARMENIA
The media consider Medvedev to be an acceptable figure for Russian and foreign business.
"Nobody in the world is indifferent to who will become Russia's head of state - it's a small world... As early as December 10, when the information on Medvedev's nomination as president became public, the Russian stock indexes set historical records. American indexes also climbed." "Medvedev's image suggests that he will continue the current president's course. For the Russian business community, Medvedev is a consensus figure not because of his image but owing to practical considerations - he is promising to guarantee the established terms of enterprise." (Novoye vremya, December 13)
GEORGIA
The critics of the ruling regime are reproaching Mikheil Saakashvili for pro-Russian politics.
"Despite frequent undiplomatic and loud anti-Russian propaganda, Saakashvili has done nothing to harm Russian interests in the Caucasus. The simplest step... would be to quit the CIS... It would help the anti-Russian forces in Azerbaijan and separatist movements in the North Caucasus... A nation's sovereignty and independence should override any other considerations." (Rezonansi, December 12)
AZERBAIJAN
The press is negative about Moscow's position on the Iranian problem and the issue of Kosovo's independence.
"Like the U.S.S.R did in the past, Russia is actively using Iran, a true supporter of the multi-polar world idea, for fanning tensions in the Middle East. With this Asian weapon-state, the current government will continue disrupting stabilization attempts by the United States and its allies in the Middle East. Russia's destructive geopolitical energy weapon, multiplied by the exported ideology of the Iranian theocrats, will always produce a detonation - until both ‘warriors of a fair world' run out of the cursed oil." (Zerkalo, December 14)
"Today, those who only recently did not attach any importance to the principle of territorial integrity have now become its ardent supporters... Sergei Lavrov's hints about Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnestr are too similar to threats to ‘divide spheres of influence' - if you act against the Serbs, we'll take it out on Georgians or Moldovans... It is not clear what Lavrov wants more - to prevent a precedent in Serbia or use it in Georgia." (Echo, December 13)
The media are blaming Russian businessmen for growing ethnic tensions in the Crimea. "The Crimea may turn into a second Chechnya... Giving out huge bribes, Russian businessmen are buying big territories in the Crimea and drawing Russian-speaking young people into the struggle against the Tatars... These young people are continuously attacking Crimean Tatars... A Mejlis [parliament] session has produced a resolution to set up paramilitary units for the struggle against the Cossacks and militant groups, but this decision was vetoed with a view of preventing another Chechnya." (Aina, December 18)
KAZAKHSTAN
Some experts believe that separatist trends in Russia continue to present a serious threat for the central government. They attribute Moscow's position on the Kosovo issue to its apprehensions about Chechnya.
"Nobody will dispute the fact that Chechnya is Russia's main headache. It relegates into the background all problems with Abkhazians, Ossetians, Moldovans and Ukrainians... Any centrifugal forces arising in Chechnya may tear the country to pieces... It is quite possible that the European Union is discussing the Kosovo problem with an eye on Chechnya. Apparently, Russia will be showered with heavy criticism of its Caucasian policy after Pristina becomes independent. Moscow obviously dislikes this scenario and is trying to avoid it." (Gazeta.kz, December 13)
KYRGYZSTAN
The media is attracted by alternative scenarios of Russia's development, drafted by the Russian-Eurasian department of the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Journalists believe that these scenarios are based on certain logic, considering the specific features of Russia's political system.
"If chaos breaks out, will it induce nationalism? It may. Will the Kremlin's ‘siloviki' become stronger? They will because someone will have to reinstate order. Will they declare a state of emergency? Probably. [Andrew] Kuchins (one of CSIS directors) has probably overdone with striking oilmen, but they may go on strike if chaos disrupts exports and they receive no salaries. Apparently, the Kremlin will resort to the use of force to restore its oil industry. Kuchins is simply describing a country where human rights are handled without gloves... Kuchins's seemingly insane forecast adequately reflects Russian realities." (Obshchestvenny reiting, December 14)
TURKMENISTAN
Opposition publications are writing about the deplorable position of Turkmen scientists. They are not allowed to leave the country without a fictitious document of bad health.
"The leading Turkmen scientists have been prohibited from attending conferences abroad. They have to ask doctors to give them documents of poor health so that they could explain a trip to Moscow, Novosibirsk or Tashkent by the need to undergo medical treatment." (Paikhas, December 17)
TAJIKISTAN
Analysts are extrapolating the Russian scenario of transferring power to the president's successor to Central Asia.
"The world is no longer discussing the undemocratic nature of the recent parliamentary elections in Russia. Everyone is talking about the new successor... Will other CIS leaders follow Putin's example? This question primarily applies to Central Asia where no leader has given up power on his own free will in the last 20 years, and where Moscow has always been an example to follow. For the time being, Central Asia is following its own road and Putin's example has not been used. But the times are changing. The question of successors will become pertinent sooner or later. Let's hope that Putin, the head of the CIS strongest power, will not make a choice for the people of our region." (Asia-Plus, December 13)
Describing Dmitry Medvedev as an obviously pro-Western politician, some authors are negative about the prospects for key Tajik-Russian projects.
"Last December Dmitry Medvedev declared that it would be better to solve the Rogun Dam problem on a commercial basis. But for Tajikistan, this project is more than a commercial issue. If Medvedev adheres to his old view, our prospects are not so good... As a liberal, Medvedev is leaning more towards the West and for him relations with Central Asia are not a priority." (Asia-Plus, December 13)
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