Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank, said corporate loans could amount to $90 billion in 2007, and the amount could increase 39% next year, as banks and companies borrow $65 billion and $60 billion, respectively.
The expert mentioned short term debt schedules and the relatively high volume of credit as disadvantages. The payment of the bulk of the debt and net interest which already totals $88 billion will exceed the country's debit balance in 2008.
Among other negative aspects, net payments of corporate loans will devour some 30% of the country's trade balance. In the first half of 2007 Russia's balance of payments dropped 32% owing to a 39% growth in imports, and an increase in money transfers by migrant workers from the CIS.
However, Alfa Bank analysts said an increase in corporate loans in Russia would delay the forecast weakening of the ruble due to a decreasing trade balance in the next few years.
