Russia expects its gross domestic product to decline less than projected in 2009 and grow 3-4% next year, Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said on Tuesday.
"In 2009, the decline will be slightly less profound than the official forecast of 8.5% as GDP will fall about 8%. Next year, GDP growth will be faster than the official forecast of 1.5%. I believe it will grow about 3-4% given current macroeconomic parameters," Ulyukayev told a Russian economic and financial forum in Austria.
Ulyukayev said the Russian economy was demonstrating the signs of recovery.
The Russian Economics Ministry earlier reported that GDP decline slowed to 8.1% in October from 8.6% in September. The Russian economy shrank 9.6% in the first 10 months of the year as compared with 10% in January-September 2009.
Russia's state budget deficit is expected to be considerably smaller than the projected figure of 8.3% of GDP in 2009 and will be less than 7% in 2010, Ulyukayev said.
Ulyukayev said that global oil prices currently staying within the range of $70-80 per barrel were comfortable for the Russian economy and created a good revenue basis for the budget.
Consumer price growth in Russia could ease to a level close to 9% in 2009, allowing the Central Bank to continue its policy of interest rate cuts, Ulyukayev said. Inflation was more than 13% in 2008.
Inflation in Russia measured 8.3% from January 1 to November 23, with consumer prices expected to grow only 0.3-0.4% this month, Ulyukayev said.
Russia's Central Bank cut on October 30 its key lending rate by 0.5 percentage points to 9.5% per annum following a slowdown in consumer price growth.
The rate is the lowest since Russia started its transition to a market economy in the early 1990s. The previous rate of 10% per annum was set from September 30, 2009.
Analysts say the move is intended to bring down interest rates on loans granted to the real sector to help domestic business amid the ongoing economic crisis.
The Central Bank has now cut the refinancing rate eight times since the start of the year, when it was 13%.
SALZBURG, November 24 (RIA Novosti)
