Much depends on how the Kremlin will react to the extremely vulnerable position of Chubais, one of Putin's potential political rivals. Despite the fact that Chubais did not make any anti-Putin statements after the defeat of the liberal Union of Right Forces party during the 2003 State Duma elections (he was one of the party leaders at the time).
Chubais remains a prominent "shadow" figure for possible united rightist-liberal opposition. The Kremlin team (and especially its "security-related" section) is therefore tempted to replace Chubais with a loyal head during the next UES annual shareholders' meeting in June. The state also owns a controlling stake in the company.
But swapping Chubais for a Putin sympathizer has as many minuses as it does pluses. Chubais' resignation will not solve problems facing the energy industry, and there will be no one to shift the responsibility on when new disasters crop up. Heading one of the largest Russian state monopolies, Chubais does not have time to lead an active political life. However, if the Kremlin hands him a pink slip, Chubais would have a lot of free time on his hands.
Wednesday's events might undermine stability without specific actions on the part of the opposition or terrorist activities. In Russia, utility systems are worn out to the point where the country lives in the conditions of a latent industrial catastrophe. Russians are only waiting until "the pipe bursts" next time.
As a result of the emergency shutdown at several Moscow-based electric power sub-stations, there was a complete or partial power outage in six out of 10 Moscow administrative districts, affecting home electricity, the metro, streetcars, trolley buses and commuter trains. Twenty-four cities in the Moscow region, and cities and villages in the Kaluga, Tula and Ryazan regions had trouble with their power supply. According to UES data, the disaster affected between 1.5 and 2 million people.
