Russian experts are discussing a subject that so far seems improbable politically. If the current development demographic and raw material trends persist, in 20 years Russia will cease to be an independent center of power and will be faced with a difficult choice of joining another center and fighting for its sovereignty.
Rapidly developing China is a potential center of power in the east, and united Europe is a possible center in the west. It is impossible to imagine that Russia would have more or less equal relations with the future Chinese superpower. In this situation, Europe would seem a preferable choice. The economies of Russia and the EU are mutually complementary and, given a wise policy, Moscow would be able to develop suitable relations with the EU by using its raw materials leverage.
The pseudo-federative European state, which the failed constitution envisioned, would minimize the possibility of Russia's accession to it. Even if Russia weakened to the utmost, it would not agree to renounce the greater part of its sovereignty. But accession to a united, but flexible Europe with a high level of economic freedom and moderate supranational component should not be ruled out.
If the EU gradually returns as a result of the current and future changes to the forms of integration it had during the period of economic community, Russia may consider the issue of its accession in practical terms.
