MOSCOW, May 13 (RIA Novosti) - Belarus could be next in line for the revolution bug that swept Georgia and Ukraine, which would pave the way for a serious Russian-western conflict, Alexei Arbatov, head of the International Security Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a daily.
After losing in Ukraine, Moscow wants to prevent similar events in Belarus, but the "color revolution" model works well for the West, which would like to see the same happen in Belarus, Arbatov said.
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko will likely suppress all attempts at protests, which, Arbatov said, could trigger Western interference and oppositional support. Lukashenko would seek out Russian assistance and Moscow would have a hard time ignoring his plea since Belarus has grown in importance for Moscow after its candidate lost in Ukraine, Arbatov said, adding Lukashenko is nearly the Kremlin's last ally.
According to Arbatov, if Lukashenko asks Russia for assistance and it becomes clear that a rejection of the appeal could mean a Belarussian emulation of Ukraine's seeking NATO admission down the line, Putin would be facing formidable pressure. He will also be forced to think of ways to prevent political instability in Russia and losing Belarus after the defeat in Ukraine would not help his image at home.
But Arbatov says the West is unlikely to interfere in Belarus, which will remain with Russia, and instead redouble its efforts in Ukraine, the post-Soviet Baltic countries and Georgia, and try to win over Azerbaijan and Armenia. That would eventually leave Russia and Belarus surrounded by NATO countries, with which Russia will be unable to interact.
According to Arbatov, this scenario could be avoided if Russia develops relations with the opposition leaders of Belarus. However, this is a highly delicate matter since Lukashenko has outlawed opposition and developing ties with it would send an anti-Lukashenko message, the political scientist said.
